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Of course, folks also broadly fear Europe backsliding to recession. Another buying opportunity! It rolls with great brands, new models, moderate growth and devotion to research and development. It builds everything from roads to airports, employees feed into an expanding capital expenditure cycle. Im very fretful about the damage they could do to your net worth.
Since anxiety is built into our amygdalas, we cant displace it entirely. But we can learn to redirect it. Lets look at three investor fears propagated by various doomsayers and see how to divert those fears into useful behavior. The high-frequency hype. Michael Lewis made a bestseller out of the theory that rapid-re traders using well-placed computers are sucking the life out of the stock market, leaving nothing for the little guy.
Well, if you trade in and out of your Tesla times a day, youre at a disadvantage. But normal people shouldnt give the high-frequency crowd a second of thought. If you want to worry about trading, think about problems that are entirely of your own making.
When you move in and out of a thinly traded stockor when a big fund you own moves in and out of a stock, even one with decent volumethe price gets pushed away. Turning over a portfolio once a year can easily clip half a percentage point off returns. Solution: Dont trade.
Buy and hold. Sell that fund with the overac. The Ponzi panic. Writing in these pages a few months ago, the economist Laurence Kotlikoff declared that the Securities Investor Protection Corp. What got him so worked up? Really, is there a risk that Charles Schwab will abscond to Brazil with your assets? Its about equal to the risk that you will be killed by a meteorite. Solution: Fire the manager. Get an index fund. Schwab has some good ones.
The volatility vapors. The Fed twitches, stocks take a spill, and the market strategists go into a fainting spell. What a waste. The market popped back. If you want to worry about stock market uctuations, forget the one-day volatility and think about multidecade volatility. Theres a lot of uncertainty about whats going to happen to your investments between now and when you spend the money in retirement, and it is not in any way captured by vol statistics that market experts talk about.
Consider this possibility: The past 32 years have been deceivingly good. Stocks did well as globalization and computerization rewarded owners of capital.
Bonds did well as ination was tamed. The two-point difference has a large impact, almost 2-to-1, on what a dollar put aside at age 40 will buy you when youre Youre not going to like my cure for this source of mental anguish. You should save more. Double that.
IN THE WORDS of Malaclypse the Younger, All statements are true in some sense, false in some sense, meaningless in some sense, true and false in some sense, true and meaningless in some sense, false and meaningless in some sense, and true and false and meaningless in some sense. Malaclypse was the pen name for Gregory Hill, coauthor of Principia Discordia, the absurdist cult classic published in I think it contains some lessons for xed-income investors todayespecially considering market absurdities such as Portuguese, Italian and Spanish ten-year government bonds yielding about the same as U.
One preposterous pearl from the book is the Law of Fives, which dictates that All things happen in ves, or are divisible by or are multiples of ve, or are somehow directly or indirectly appropriate to ve. Malaclypse is on to something here. Among bond investors there are ve common misunderstandings I hear constantly: 1. Market-cap-weighted investing makes sense in xed income. Most investors gain their initial market experience by investing in stocks or mutual funds. The misapplication of equity investing principles to bond investing has the potential to backre spectacularly, specically.
This amounts to an adverse-selection process for xed income: The investor winds up purchasing the most indebted companies. Dividend stocks provide a good bond substitute. Todays low-yield environment has pushed investors out of bonds and into dividend stocks. This is a potentially disastrous strategy. The coupon payment on a bond is a legal obligation of the issuer. The dividend payment on a stock is almost always discretionary and can be changed or cease at any time.
Furthermore, the risk of principal loss is greater for common stocks. Remember the hierarchy of claims in a bankruptcy means bondholders get paid something and equity holders get wiped out. Volatility is another problem. Adding currency risk to a xed-income portfolio is a good diversier. With respect to efficient frontier portfolio analytics, back-testing suggests that the addition of a small portion of international equities helps smooth out overall performance for a dollar-based investor.
Bear in mind stock returns have historically higher volatility than do bond returns, as well as having a greater potential for gains or losses. However, the volatility of currency exchange rates dwarfs the volatility in interest rates, the primary drivers of risk in high-grade bonds. So as a general rule, avoid introducing currency risk. High-yield bonds diversify stocks. Joshua Brown, author of Backstage Wall Street, calls below-investment-grade corporate bonds chicken equity.
By that he means junk bonds often attract buyers who want to take risk but cannot stomach the volatility of stocks. Highyield bonds have their role to play, especially as a tactical allocation in multisector portfolios and in the hands of a skilled high-yield bondo.
However, historically prices of the two asset classes have tended to move in the same direction. In fact, the stocks-to-high-yield correlation coefficient is nearly 0. So when stocks tank dont expect your junk bonds to hold up. A bond or bond funds credit rating accurately reects its risk of loss.
A credit rating is simply one rms view on the probability that a bond issuer will repay interest and principal in a timely manner. In cases where a credit is trading at a signicant discount to par, the assigned credit rating is much less meaningful, as the market has already priced in the expectation of losses due to default.
This situation is prevalent today among nonagency mortgagebacked securities. My business card says Founder. So everyone thinks all these folks work for me. Everyone is wrong. These people carry this business on their shoulders. Every day. Good times and bad. No matter what they are up against. These people dont work for me. An Assaultbranded hand kayak paddle, created from a rapid prototype by Proto Labs. The Maple Plain, Minn. Facebook monetizes the past. Actual results may vary.
With available Cummins Diesel when properly equipped. See dealer for On The Job incentive details and eligibility requirements. Cummins is a registered trademark of Cummins Inc. Theres intent behind a pin: Pinterests sales boss, Joanne Bradford, has charter clients paying big bucks to try it out. So as Steve Stoute nursed a drink with a friend at the Htel du Cap-Eden-Roc on the balmy June evening that opened this years boozing and schmoozing, the Cannes Lions veteran braced himself for an onslaught of media and technology executives.
But the roles of supplicant and master reversed when Stoute spotted Ben Silbermann walking into the bar. Silbermann, 32, had just checked into his hotel and was planning to have a quick drink with his team before turning in to prep for his keynote speech the following morning.
A few weeks earlier his social media service, especially popular with women and hobbyists, began experimenting with selling ads to show to its 70 million users. With more demand than it could satisfy, Pinterest had limited its test to a mere dozen sponsors, wringing commit. Stoute was desperate to get his newest client, discount shoe store chain DSW, into the program fashion is the third-most-popular type of content on Pinterest.
I didnt want this thing to go by without us getting in front of it, he says. Horowitz called Silbermann over, and Stoute ordered ros for everyone, raised his glass toward his new acquaintance and offered up a paean of praise and blessings: Rise above, be great, stay great. After accepting Stoutes attery, Silbermann agreed to take his money, too. An hour into his Riviera debut, the new prince of Cannes had already bagged his rst deal, just by showing up.
Thats pretty much how things have been going for Pinterest lately. Pinterests U. International users now make up nearly half of new sign-ups, according to the research rm Semiocast. Pinterest even doubled the number of active male users in the past year. To date, Pinterests users have created more than million boards made up of more than 30 billion individual pins, with 54 million new ones added each day.
During the holiday season Pinterest accounted for nearly a quarter of all social sharing activity. Among social networks, only Facebook, with its 1. All that activity sounds big, but it understates the moneymaking opportunity in front of Pinterest, which will ultimately be judged by how much revenue it can wrest from its users. While its the earliest of days still, many analysts and observers believe that, on the basis of average revenue per user, its only a matter of time before Pinterest blows past Facebook, Twitter and the rest of the social pack.
Theyre going to bring in billions of dollars a year, says Dave Weinberg, founder of the social marketing company Loop To marketers, Pinterest represents a unique proposition, a new medium of a sort thats never existed before. One difference is temporal. As Silbermann explains it, Facebook is about your connections, your past events, your memories.
Users on Facebook volunteer a staggering amount of. Twitters value remains stuck in the now, promising advertisers a presence in real-time conversations about the World Cup, a presidential election or Orange Is the New Black.
If Facebook is selling the past and Twitter the present, Pinterest is offering the future. Its about what you aspire to do, what you want to do down the line, says Silbermann. And the future is where marketers want to live. When a user pins an image of a wedding dress or a coffee table to one of her boards, shes sending up a signal are to the merchandiser who might want to sell her that wedding dress or coffee table.
Theres intent around a pin, says Joanne Bradford, Pinterests head of partnerships. It says, Im organizing this into a place in my life, like when people tear out a page of a magazine. The idea of being able to locate consumers at that delicate moment when browsing becomes shopping has marketers intrigued. One of the things were trying to gure out strategically is how to tap into consumers earlier in the inspiration or planning phase, says David Doctorow, senior vice president of global marketing at Expedia, one of Pinterests charter advertisers.
We dont have great ways to identify consumers in that part of the journey. For now advertising is Pinterests only revenue line. But it requires only the tiniest leap to conjure a scenario in which the company acts as middleman for the hundreds of thousands of retailers already showcasing their wares on its platform. The next step will be how do we make it really easy for you to go out and buy that ring or take that trip, says Silbermann.
This is Amazons turf, but Facebook and Twitter have been making incursions, with both companies conducting tests of Buy buttons for frictionless shopping. Pinterest, though, has natural advantages in e-commerce, with independent research showing its users are more likely to share product links and make big purchases than users of other social platforms.
If Pinterest is going to lay claim to the future, it will have to knock off a pretty formidable incumbent, Google, which is also in the business of harvesting signals of intent and selling them to marketers. Silbermann, who spent two years as a product specialist in Googles advertising operation, knows what hes up against.
For all his midwestern diffidence he was raised in Des Moineshes not shying away from the confrontation. In his Cannes keynote Silbermann dismissed Google as the ultimate card catalog, an outdated technology useful only if you already know what youre looking for. Pinterest, he says, exposes people to possibilities they never would have known existed. Pinterest people talk of this open-ended form of search as discovery, and guring out how to do it right is the biggest business opportunity in the last 10 to 20 years for an online business, says Tim Kendall, Pinterests product head.
He says Pinterest will. Thats why I joined. Its tempting to assume otherwise: As a child in Iowa he had multiple collections, including one of dried insects pinned to cardboard; as an adult he started a pinning site for virtual collectors whose most avid early users were in the Midwest.
But the path was nowhere near as straight as that sounds. Silbermann grew up thinking hed be a doctor like his parents, both of whom are ophthalmologists. An accomplished cellist and debater, he spent the summer before his senior year in high school at MITs elite Research Science Institute and then enrolled at Yale, where he took premed courses.
Halfway through college, though, he caught the business bug. Like a lot of young people, I just wanted a job at the beginning, he says of taking the road more traveled. He quickly grew restless, growing increasingly fascinated by what was going on in the technology industry, which was bouncing back from the implosion of the Web 1.
I would read blogs on it in my free time and think, What am I doing? After three years as a consultant he scored the only job I could get at Google, as a product specialist, and moved out West in Silbermann spent his days translating customer feedback into product renements, acquiring a skill he considers crucial to Pinterests success. But troubleshooting ad systems wasnt what hed come out West to do, and the loftier ambitions on display all around him were a goad to.
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Just add a payroll deduction, n notify your workforce and let it y. Silbermann decided to quit and try to start his own company. Its rst product was a shopping app called Tote, which struggled to stir up interest. Silbermann was visiting New York when he met through a mutual friend a Columbia architecture student named Evan Sharp.
We both had the same hobby, which was the Internet, Sharp says. I grew up in rural Pennsylvania, and Ben grew up in Des Moines. For both of us, in a way, the Internet was this really precious window into worlds outside our day-to-day experience.
Sharp told Silbermann about his collection of thousands of architectural drawings and photos, which had become increasingly hard to organize. That resonated with Silber. He invited Sharp to join Cold Brew Labs, and together the three launched the rst desktop version of Pinterest in March Users could save images from anywhere on the Web to thematically organized boards Nail Art, Honeymoon Ideas, Viking Designs and so onas well as follow other users and their boards.
Every section was a free-form grid that scrolled in a never-ending succession of pictures and words.
As the work progressed, Sharp moved to the Bay Area and took a job at Facebook to support himself while the three worked from their makeshift offices, a dirty apartment in Palo Alto. This is the point in the story where usually the founders hit on the novelty that makes their product go viral overnight.
That wasnt how it happened with Pinterest. Its early gains were the result of laborious word-of-mouth marketing, with Silbermann leaning on everyone in his network to spread the word and personally contacting several thousand users to quiz them about what they liked and disliked.
Its kind of ridiculous how long we worked on it, given how little success we were seeing. Nor was it an overnight sensation with investors. He had a hell of a time raising money in the beginning, says Ron Conway, a perpetual member of the Forbes Midas List, whose rm, SV Angel, invested in April at the urging of fellow angel Shana Fisher. A friend sent it to me, and I didnt even take the meeting, he recalls.
I was like, Ehhhh, this is interesting, but I dont know what to do with it. Its too conceptual for me. Those days are past. Others are jumping on the gravy train. With more than employeesup from fewer than 20 in early Pinterest has just signed a lease on another building in the neighborhood it moved into its current location just two years ago. I spend a lot more of my time trying to clearly communicate where were going so everyone can march in the same direction, Silbermann says.
Technology has made it easier for small teams to scale fast, but no ones ever released something that makes it easy to build a culture proportionately as fast. The cornerstone of Pinterests culture is a principle they call Knit. Whereas other big tech companies in the Valley are led by people of one skill setengineers at Google, designers at ApplePinterest solves problems by combining different kinds of expertise.
That way you can produce something that no one individual with one expertise could have produced on their own, says product chief Kendall. As a visual reminder, a diagonal beam in the lobby is covered in a crocheted cozy. Were trying to build a culture of deep appreciation for different disciplines is how Id put it, Sharp says. Despite their similarities, Silbermann and Sharp have slipped into complementary roles.
Sciarra, the third cofounder, left Pinterest in Aprilnding a soft landing as an entrepreneur-in-residence at Andreessen Horowitz. Ben was the guy to take the company into its next phase, and hes doing an excellent job, he says. The linearminded, strategic former management consultant was the.
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